The Tide of Shares
supply of shares: While most analysis focuses on earnings and the Fed, the quiet force of shrinking stock supply through buybacks has shaped the long bull market over the last fifteen years.
Read article
The Hidden Costs of "Buy and Hold" for Retirees Drawing Income
sequence-of-returns risk: While buy and hold works for savers, retirement changes the math. Discover why the order of investment returns can impact your portfolio's longevity once you begin taking distributions.
Read more
Inflation, Hormuz, and the Ghost of 1973
1970s inflation parallel: With headline CPI reaccelerating and global energy chokepoints disrupted, we examine the similarities between today's economy and the 1970s inflation era.
Read moreThe Bond Buyer of Last Resort
bond buyer of last resort: Understanding the hierarchy of sovereign borrowers is essential for global bond market analysis. From reserve currency issuers to foreign-currency borrowers, here is how debt monetization im...
Read more
Debt, Income, and the Arithmetic That Cannot Be Ignored
Debt, Income, and the Arithmetic That Cannot Be Ignored Why the question is not just how much America and the world owe, but whether income is growing f...
Read more
Why this oil shock looks unlike anything since 1973
While the current Strait of Hormuz blockade represents the largest oil supply shock in history, the U.S. economic position today is fundamentally different than during the 1973 crisis due to record domestic production.
Read more
War, Oil, and the Path Forward
Assessing the Iran Conflict’s impact on markets, inflation, and portfolios — one month after U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran.
Read more
Market Memo (Navigating War Markets)
Market Memo: Navigating War Markets. Perissos Private Wealth analysis of how geopolitical conflict affects inflation, oil prices, and equity returns.
Read more
Principles for Navigating War
Principles for Navigating War: a Perissos Private Wealth framework for handling geopolitical conflict and its effect on inflation, oil, and equities.
Read more
2Q 2024 Market Update
2Q 2024 Market Update from Perissos Private Wealth. Analysis of economic trends, asset class performance, and portfolio positioning for the quarter.
Read more
Market Memo (Government Deficits)
Large U.S. Deficits and Bond Yields: What’s the Deal? Ever since Trump won the election, there’s been a lot of buzz about government deficits and their impact…
Read more
Market Memo (Tariffs)
Tariffs Through History and Trump’s 2025 Plan. Tariffs might sound like something from a dusty textbook, but they’re tools with real market consequences.
Read more
Market Memo
In my last memo, I discussed how inflation could be disastrous for an economy, especially creditors/savers when left to its own devices. In this memo, I will ex…
Read more
Market Memo
The Pandemic-induced recession is rapidly becoming a distant memory as the economy continues to show remarkable signs of regaining its footing. Consumer spendin…
Read more
Market Memo
The Long-Term Debt Cycle Explained Today we saw the highest inflation rate since 1982 (6.8%), which I am sure you will see on the news tonight.
Read more